Прогнозирование уровня смертности от инфекции Mpox в Африке с использованием гибридного подхода
https://doi.org/10.22625/2072-6732-2025-17-2-96-99
Abstract
Objective: The main objective of our work is to forecast the daily Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) index for Mpox, a disease that has posed significant challenges, particularly in African countries. Mpox has become a major public health concern due to its rapid spread and the strain it places on healthcare systems
Methods: In this paper, we use a hybrid approach to enhance the performance of traditional models. First, we apply the ARIMA model, which is more suitable for the task, and then we implement a noise reduction technique to further improve the results.
Results and discussions: We utilize four performance measures RMSE, MSE, MAE, and MAPE to evaluate the efficiency of our approach. By combining a denoising technique with ARIMA and integrating Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with the ARIMA model, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrates the best performance.
Conclusion: Forecasting the Infection Fatality Rate with an appropriate model provides a deeper understanding of this phenomenon, enabling authorities to effectively control and manage the risks associated with Mpox.
Supporting agencies: We acknowledge the support of ”Direction G´en´erale de la Recherche Scientifique et du D´eveloppement Technologique DGRSDT”.MESRS ALGERIA.
About the Author
Djillali Seba
University of Bejaia
Algeria
Algeria
Djillali Seba – Faculty of exact sciences, Applied Mathematics Laboratory, Associate Professor
Bejaia
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Review
For citations:
Seba D. Прогнозирование уровня смертности от инфекции Mpox в Африке с использованием гибридного подхода. Journal Infectology. 2025;17(2):96-99. https://doi.org/10.22625/2072-6732-2025-17-2-96-99
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