jofinЖурнал инфектологииJournal Infectology2072-6732IPO “АIDSSPbR"10.22625/2072-6732-2025-17-2-96-99jofin-1787Research ArticleОригинальное исследованиеOriginal ResearchПрогнозирование уровня смертности от инфекции Mpox в Африке с использованием гибридного подходаПрогнозирование уровня смертности от инфекции Mpox в Африке с использованием гибридного подходаSebaDjillaliSebaDjillali

Djillali Seba – Faculty of exact sciences, Applied  Mathematics Laboratory, Associate Professor

d.seba@esi-sba.dz 

Беджайа 

Djillali Seba – Faculty of exact sciences, Applied Mathematics Laboratory, Associate Professor

 Bejaia 

Университет БеджайяАлжирUniversity of BejaiaAlgeria2025240620251729699Copyright © Seba D., 20252025Seba D.Seba D.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://journal.niidi.ru/jofin/article/view/1787

Цель: прогнозирование индекса ежедневной смертности (IFR) от инфекции Mpox – заболевания, которое создало значительные проблемы, особенно в африканских странах. Mpox стал серьезной проблемой общественного здравоохранения из-за его быстрого распространения и нагрузки, которую он оказывает на системы здравоохранения.Методы: гибридный подход для повышения эффективности традиционных моделей. Сначала мы применяем модель ARIMA, которая больше подходит для этой задачи, а затем реализуем метод шумоподавления для дальнейшего улучшения результатов.Результаты: мы используем 4 показателя эффективности (RMSE, MSE, MAE и MAPE) для оценки эффективности нашего подхода. Объединив метод шумоподавления с ARIMA и интегрировав анализ сингулярного спектра (SSA) с моделью ARIMA, модель SSA-ARIMA демонстрирует наилучшую производительность.Выводы: прогнозирование уровня смертности от инфекции с помощью соответствующей модели обеспечивает более глубокое понимание этого явления, позволяя властям эффективно контролировать и управлять рисками, связанными с Mpox.

Objective: The main objective of our work is to forecast the daily Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) index for Mpox, a disease that has posed significant challenges, particularly in African countries. Mpox has become a major public health concern due to its rapid spread and the strain it places on healthcare systemsMethods: In this paper, we use a hybrid approach to enhance the performance of traditional models. First, we apply the ARIMA model, which is more suitable for the task, and then we implement a noise reduction technique to further improve the results.Results and discussions: We utilize four performance measures RMSE, MSE, MAE, and MAPE to evaluate the efficiency of our approach. By combining a denoising technique with ARIMA and integrating Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with the ARIMA model, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrates the best performance.Conclusion: Forecasting the Infection Fatality Rate with an appropriate model provides a deeper understanding of this phenomenon, enabling authorities to effectively control and manage the risks associated with Mpox.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.