Herd immunity of sars-cov-2 among the population of Kalinigrad region amid the COVID-19 epidemic

Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic was announced by WHO in February 2020. In the Kaliningrad region, the first case (imported) was registered in early March 2020, the beginning of the epidemic increase fell on the 14th week. 2020, and the peak incidence was reached in the 22nd week of the year, after which there was a steady decrease in the number of cases. The study of population immunity was carried out at the 32nd week during the period of the lowest level of intensity of the epidemic process.

Purpose of the study. Assessment of the assessment of the level of population immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus among the population of the Kaliningrad region during the period of the epidemic incidence of the population of COVID-19.

Materials and methods. The study was carried out as part of the first stage of the Rospotrebnadzor program to assess population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 among the population of the Russian Federation. The selection of volunteers for the study was carried out by a questionnaire survey and subsequent randomization. The analysis includes the results of a survey of 2675 people. The number of volunteers in age groups ranged from 314 to 493 people. The results obtained were processed by the methods of variation statistics.

Results. The results obtained showed that the average seroprevalence in the population was 50.2%, while the highest seroprevalence was found in the child age group 1-17 years (66.9%) and among persons aged 18-29 (57.0). No significant gender differences were found (men – 48,3 ± 1,6%, women – 51,1 ± 1,1%). The distribution of the proportion of seropositive people in the settlements of the region varied from 33,9% to 59.6%. The largest share of seroprevalence in the representative samples was found among people engaged in art / creativity (55,3%), the smallest – among educational workers (42,0%). Among COVID-19 convalescents, the level of humoral immunity reached 94,6%. Most of the seropositive volunteers (95,2%) did not have any symptoms of COVID-19, that is, they belonged to the category of asymptomatic carriers.

Output. The results of a survey of a representative cohort of volunteers in the Kaliningrad region showed that they are characterized by a high level of population immunity, which makes it possible to expect a decrease in.

1. Shchelkanov M.Yu., Popova A.Yu., Dedkov V.G., Akimkin V.G., Maleev V.V. History of study and modern classification of coronaviruses (Nidovirales: Coronaviridae). Infection and immunity. 2020. – vol. 10 (2). – c. 221-246. https://doi.org/10.15789/2220-7619-HOI-1412

2. Smirnov V.S., Zarubaev V.V., Petlenko S.V. Biology of pathogens and control of influenza and SARS. SPb.: 2020.- 334c.

3. Kardos P., Malek F.A. Common Cold – an Umbrella Term for Acute Infections of Nose, Throat, Larynx and Bronchi. Pneumologie. – 2017y – 71 (4). – p. 221-226. doi: 10.1055/s0042-116112

4. Hilgenfeld R., Peiris M. From SARS to MERS: 10 years of research on highly pathogenic human coronaviruses. Antiviral Res. – 2013. -100 (1). – p. 286-295.doi: 10.1016/j.antiviral.2013.08.015

5. Peiris J.S.M., Lai S.T., Poon L.L.M., Guan Y., Yam L.Y.C., Lim W., Nicholls J., Yee W.K.S., Yan W.W.,. Cheung M.T ,. Cheng V.C.C, Chan K.H., Tsang D.N.C., Yung R.W.H., Ng T.K., Yuen K.Y. Coronavirus as a possible cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Lancet. – 2003 .-- 361 (9366). – 1319-1325. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736 (03) 13077-2.

6. Dawson P., Malik M.R., Parvez F., Morse S.S. What Have We Learned About Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Emergence in Humans? A Systematic Literature Review. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. – 2019. – 19 (3). – p. 174-192. doi: 10.1089/vbz.2017.2191

7. WHU. MERS situation update, January 2020. http://www.emro.who.int/health-topics/mers-cov/mers-outbreaks.html

8. Menachery V.D., Yount B.L. Jr, Debbink K., Agnihothram S., Gralinski L.E., Plante J.A., Graham R.L., Scobey T., Ge X.Y., Donaldson E.F., Randell S.H., Lanzavecchia A., Marasco W.A., Shi Z.L., Baric R.S. A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence. Nat. Med. – 2015 . – 21 (12). – 1508-1513. doi: 10.1038/nm.3985.

9. Islam A., Ahmed A., Naqvi I.H., Parveen S. Emergence of deadly severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 during 2019-2020 VirusDisease. – 2020. – 31 (2). – p. 1-9. doi: 10.1007/s13337-020-00575-1.

10. WHO Director-General’s remarks at the 2019-nCoV coronavirus infection press briefing, 11 February 2020 https://www.who.int/ru/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s- remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-2019-ncov-on-11-february-2020

11. Kumar MS, Bhatnagar T., Manickam P., Kumar VS, Rade K., Shah N., Kant S., Babu GR, Zodpey S., Girish Kumar CP, Vivian Thangaraj JW, Chatterjee P., Kanungo S. , Pandey RM, Murhekar M., Singh SK, Sarkar S., Muliyi JP, Gangakhedkar RR, Reddy DC, S. National sero-surveillance to monitor the trend of SARS-CoV-2 infection transmission in India: Protocol for community-based surveillance. Indian J. Med. Res. – 2020. – 151 (5). – p. 419-423. doi: 10.4103/ijmr.IJMR_1818_20.

12. Khalid A., Ali S. COVID-19 and its Challenges for the Healthcare System in Pakistan. Asian Bioeth. Rev. – 2020. – p. 1-14. doi: 10.1007/s41649-020-00139-x.

13. Clemente-Suárez V. J., Hormeño-Holgado A., Jiménez M., Benitez-Agudelo J.C., Navarro-Jiménez E., Perez-Palencia N., Maestre-Serrano R., Laborde-Cárdenas C.C., Tornero-Aguilera J.F. Dynamics of Population Immunity Due to the Herd Effect in the COVID-19 Pandemic. Vaccines (Basel). – 2020. – 8 (2). – p. 236.doi: 10.3390/vaccines8020236

14. Randolph H.E., Barreiro L.B. Herd Immunity: Understanding COVID-19 Immunity. – 2020. – 52 (5) – p. 737-741. doi: 10.1016/j.immuni.2020.04.012

15. Popova A. Yu., Yezhlova E.B., Melnikova A.A., Bashketova N.S., Fridman R.K., Lyalina L.V., Smirnov V.S., Chkhindzheria I.G., Grechaninova T.A., Agapov K.A., Arsentyeva N.A., Bazhenova N.A., Batsunov O.K., Danilova E.M., Zueva E.V., Komkova D.V., Kuznetsova R N., Lyubimova N.E., Markova A.N., Khamitova I.V., Vetrov V.V., Milichkina A.M., Dedkov V.G., Totolyan A.A. 2020.population immunity to the SARS-COV-2 virus among the population of St. Petersburg in the active phase of the COVID-19 epidemic. Problems of especially dangerous infections. – 2020. – No. 3, – p. … .. Doi 10.21055/0370-1069-2020-3.

16. Newcombe R.G. Two-Sided Confidence Intervals for the Single Proportion: Comparison of Seven Methods. Statistics in Medicine, – 1998 .-- 17. – p. 857-887. doi: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19980430)17:83.0.co; 2-e.

17. Popova A. Yu., Ezhlova E.B., Melnikova A.A., Historian O.A., Mosevich O.S., Lyalina L.V., Smirnov V.S., Cherny M.A., Balabashyva N.S., Loginova I.S., Vladimirova O.S., Samoglyadova I.S., Vasev N.A., Rumyantseva S.V., Chupalova E.Yu., Selivanova G.V., Muravyova M V., Timofeeva L. V., Khankishieva E. N., Tylchevskaya V. D., Nikitenko N. D., Kostenitskaya T. I., Virkunen N. V., Klimkina I. M., Kuzmina T. M ., Degtyarenko N.V., Bazunova A.I., Filippova L.A., Palchikova N.A., Kukushkin A.V., Arsentyeva N.A., Batsunov O.K., Bogumilchik E.A., Voskresenskaya E.A., Drobyshevskaya V.G., Zueva E.V., Kokorina G.I., Kurova N.N., Lyubimova N.E., Ferman R.S., Hamdulaeva G.N., Khamitova I V., Khorkova E. V., Milichkina A. M., Dedkov V. G., Totolyan A. A. 2020a. The experience of assessing population immunity to SARS-COV-2 among the population of the Leningrad region during the COVID-19 epidemic. Problems of especially dangerous infections. – 2020 – No. 3. – p.…. doi 10.21055/0370-1069-2020-3.

18. Chen Y., Tong X., Wang J., Huang W., Yin S., Huang R., Yang H., Chen Y., Huang A., Liu Y., Chen Y., Yuan L., Yan X., Shen H., Wu C. High SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence among healthcare workers exposed to COVID-19 patients. J. Infect. – 2020. – 81 (3). – c. 420-426. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.05.067

19. Lee S., Meyler P., Mozel M., Tauh T., Merchant R. Asymptomatic carriage and transmission of SARS-CoV-2: What do we know? Can. J. Anaesth. – 2020. – p. 1-7. doi: 10.1007/s12630-020-01729-

20. Rothe C., Schunk M., Sothmann P., Bretzel G., Froeschl G., Wallrauch C., T. Zimmer, Thiel V., Janke C., Guggemos W., Seilmaier M., Drosten C., Vollmar P., Zwirglmaier K., Zange S., W lfel R., Hoelscher M. Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany Case Reports N. Engl. J. Med. – 2020. – 382 (10) .- p. 970-971. doi: 10.1056/NEJMc2001468.

21. Yu X., Yang R. COVID-19 Transmission Through Asymptomatic Carriers Is a Challenge to Containment. Influenza Other Respir. Viruses. – 2020. – 14 (4). – p. 474-475. doi: 10.1111/irv.12743

22. Long Q.-X., Tang X.-J., Shi Q.-L., Li Q., Deng H.-J., Yuan J., Hu J.-L., Xu W., Zhang Y., Lv F.-J., Su K., Zhang F., Gong J., Wu B., Liu X.-M., Li J.-J., Qiu J.-F., Chen J. Huang A.-L. Clinical and immunological assessment of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. Nat. Med. – 2020.- 26. P. 1200–1204. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0965-6

23. Vabret N., Britton GJ, Gruber C., Hegd S., Kim J., Kuksin M., Levantovsky R., Malle L., Moreira A., Park MD, Pia L., Risson E., Saffern M ., Salom B., Selvan ME, Spindler MP, Tan J., van der Heide V., Gregory JK, Alexandropoulos K., Bhardwaj N., Brown BD, Greenbaum B., G m−− ZH, Homann D., Horowitz A., Kamphorst AO, Curotto de Lafaille MA, Mehandru S., Merad M., Samstein RM, The Sinai Immunology Review Project. Immunology of COVID-19: current state of the science. Cell Press. – 2020.doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.immuni.2020.05.002

24. Gao M., Yang L., Chen X., Deng Y., Yang S., Xu H., Chen Z., Gaoe X. A study on infectivity of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers. Respir Med. – 2020. – p. 169: 106026. doi: 10.1016 /j.rmed.2020.106026