Preview

Journal Infectology

Advanced search

to be or not to be: forecast of Covid-19 epidemic development in Russia

https://doi.org/10.22625/2072-6732-2020-12-3-6-11

Abstract

Currently, the intensity of COVID-19 epidemic in Russia is declining. Most of the country’s regions are at the first stage of lifting restrictions; some regions have moved to the second and third phases. At the same time, the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Southern hemisphere indicates the continuous circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in the world. The article provides statements arguing for the development of the «second wave» of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia, as well as practical recommendations aimed at preparing for the autumn-winter epidemic season 2020–2021.

About the Authors

D. M. Danilenko
Research Institute of Influenza named after A.A. Smorodintsev
Russian Federation
Saint-Petersburg


A. B. Komissarov
Research Institute of Influenza named after A.A. Smorodintsev
Russian Federation
Saint-Petersburg


M. A. Stukova
Research Institute of Influenza named after A.A. Smorodintsev
Russian Federation
Saint-Petersburg


D. A. Lioznov
Research Institute of Influenza named after A.A. Smorodintsev; First Saint-Petersburg State Medical University named after academician I.P. Pavlov
Russian Federation
Saint-Petersburg


References

1. Ceylan Z. Estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in Italy, Spain, and France. Sci Total Environ. 2020;729:138817. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138817

2. Sebastiani G, Massa M, Riboli E. Covid-19 epidemic in Italy: evolution, projections and impact of government measures. Eur J Epidemiol. 2020;35(4):341-345. doi:10.1007/s10654-020-00631-6

3. Report of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan.https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/iasr-sp/865-iasr/8491-466te.html, fig. 4., accessed June 30, 2020

4. Lina B. CLINICAL MANIFESTATIONS OF INFLUENZA, RSV AND SARS-CoV-2 Co-Infections: Possible scenario’s. Open lecture for ESWI seminar «Managing influenza and RSV during COVID-19 pandemic».

5. Hirsh S, Hindiyeh M, Kolet L, et al. Epidemiological changes of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in Israel. PLoS One. 2014;9(3):e90515. Published 2014 Mar 3. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0090515

6. Coronavirus lockdowns might be delaying flu season in the southern hemisphere/ GlobalNews, May 26, 2020. https://globalnews.ca/news/6999217/coronavirus-lockdown-flu-rsv/, accessed June 30, 2020

7. Physical distancing and good hand hygiene: Australian flu cases drop by more than 99% / News GP. June 06, 2020. https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/physical-distancing-andgood-hand-hygiene-australi, accessed June 30, 2020

8. Z. Xing and C.J. Cardona. Preexisting Immunity to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2009; DOI: 10.3201/eid1511.090685

9. Pinto, D., Park, Y., Beltramello, M. et al. Cross-neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 by a human monoclonal SARS-CoV antibody. Nature (2020).

10. Sanche S, Lin Y, Xu C, et al. High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2020;26(7):1470-1477. doi:10.3201/eid2607.200282.

11. Pedro Plans-Rubió (2012) Evaluation of the establishment of herd immunity in the population by means of serological surveys and vaccination coverage, Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, 8:2, 184-188, DOI: 10.4161/hv.18444

12. Maximum of 3% of Czechs have been infected with coronavirus: study. https://rmx.news/article/article/maximum-of-3-of-czechs-have-been-infected-with-coronavirus-study; accessed June 30, 2020

13. The first results of an ongoing study of antibodies to the covid-19 virus. https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-franpagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/; accessed June 30, 2020

14. UK tests reveal 17% of Londoners have COVID-19 antibodies. https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-22/UK-testsreveal-17-of-Londoners-have-COVID-19-antibodies-QGoxm-5G2Ig/index.html; accessed June 30, 2020

15. Popova claimed immunity to coronavirus in 14% of tested. Interfax, June 10, 2020. https://www.interfax.ru/russia/712617; accessed June 30, 2020

16. 200 thousand were ill. European University has published the results of a St. Petersburg study of antibodies to COVID-19. Fontanka, June 19, 2020.https://www.fontanka.ru/2020/06/19/69323737/; accessed June 30, 2020

17. Potential impact of seasonal forcing on aSARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Swiss Med Wkly. 2020;150: w20224.

18. Visseaux B, Burdet C, Voiriot G, Lescure FX, Chougar T, et al. (2017) Prevalence of respiratory viruses among adults, by season, age, respiratory tract region and type of medical unit in Paris, France, from 2011 to 2016. PLOS ONE 12(7): e0180888. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180888


Review

For citations:


Danilenko D.M., Komissarov A.B., Stukova M.A., Lioznov D.A. to be or not to be: forecast of Covid-19 epidemic development in Russia. Journal Infectology. 2020;12(3):6-11. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.22625/2072-6732-2020-12-3-6-11

Views: 1454


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2072-6732 (Print)