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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">jofin</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Журнал инфектологии</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Journal Infectology</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2072-6732</issn><publisher><publisher-name>IPO “АIDSSPbR"</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22625/2072-6732-2022-14-5-14-25</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">jofin-1422</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Оригинальное исследование</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>Original Research</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Прогноз степени тяжести течения SARS-CoV-2-инфекции у лиц молодого возраста с применением методов искусственного интеллекта</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>SARS-CoV-2 severity prediction in young adults using artificial intelligence</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Касьяненко</surname><given-names>К. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kas’janenko</surname><given-names>K. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Кристина Валерьевна Касьяненко, преподаватель</p><p>кафедра инфекционных болезней (с курсом медицинской паразитологии и тропических заболеваний) </p><p>Санкт-Петербург</p><p>тел.: +7-911-262-06-33</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Saint-Petersburg</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">dr.snegur@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Козлов</surname><given-names>К. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kozlov</surname><given-names>K. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Константин Вадимович Козлов, профессор, д. м. н., доцент</p><p>кафедра инфекционных болезней (с курсом медицинской паразитологии и тропических заболеваний)</p><p>Санкт-Петербург</p><p>тел.: +7-921-657-27-49</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Saint-Petersburg</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">kosttiak@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Жданов</surname><given-names>К. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Zhdanov</surname><given-names>K. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Константин Валерьевич Жданов, начальник кафедры, д. м. н., профессор, член-корреспондент</p><p>кафедра инфекционных болезней (с курсом медицинской паразитологии и тропических заболеваний)</p><p>Санкт-Петербург</p><p>тел.: +7-921-939-82-95</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Saint-Petersburg</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Лапиков</surname><given-names>И. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Lapikov</surname><given-names>I. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Игорь Игоревич Лапиков, доцент, к. т. н.</p><p>Институт кибербезопасности и цифровых технологий</p><p>кафедра информационного противоборства</p><p>Москва</p><p>тел.: 8(499)215-65-65</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">lapikov.i.i@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Беликов</surname><given-names>В. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Belikov</surname><given-names>V. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Владимир Вячеславович Беликов, доцент, к. воен. н.,доцент</p><p>Институт кибербезопасности и цифровых технологий</p><p>кафедра информационного противоборства</p><p>Москва</p><p>тел.: 8 (499) 215-65-65</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">belikov@mirea.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Военно-медицинская академия им. С. М. Кирова</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Military Medical Academy named after S. M. Kirov</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Военно-медицинская академия им. С. М. Кирова; РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Military Medical Academy named after S. M. Kirov</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>МИРЭА – Российский технологический университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>MIREA – Russian Technological University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2022</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>29</day><month>12</month><year>2022</year></pub-date><volume>14</volume><issue>5</issue><fpage>14</fpage><lpage>25</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Касьяненко К.В., Козлов К.В., Жданов К.В., Лапиков И.И., Беликов В.В., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Касьяненко К.В., Козлов К.В., Жданов К.В., Лапиков И.И., Беликов В.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Kas’janenko K.V., Kozlov K.V., Zhdanov K.V., Lapikov I.I., Belikov V.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://journal.niidi.ru/jofin/article/view/1422">https://journal.niidi.ru/jofin/article/view/1422</self-uri><abstract><p>   Цель: построить с использованием методов искусственного интеллекта предсказательную модель тяжелого течения COVID-19 у лиц молодого возраста.   Материалы и методы: проанализированы данные 906 историй болезни пациентов в возрасте от 18 до 44 лет с лабораторно верифицированной SARS-CoV-2-инфекцией за период 2020–2021 гг. Оценка лабораторных и инструментальных данных осуществлялось с помощью U-критерия Манна – Уитни с уровнем статистической значимости . Обучение нейросетевой модели проводилось с использованием фреймворка Pytorch.   Результаты. У пациентов с легкой и средней степенями тяжести SARS-CoV-2-инфекции периферическая кислородная сатурация, содержание эритроцитов, гемоглобина, общего белка, альбумина, уровень гематокрита, сывороточного железа, трансферрина, а также абсолютное число эозинофилов и лимфоцитов периферической крови были статистически значимо выше, чем у пациентов с тяжелой степенью тяжести заболевания (p &lt; 0,001). Значения абсолютного числа нейтрофилов, СОЭ, глюкозы, АЛТ, АСТ, КФК, мочевины, ЛДГ, ферритина, СРБ, фибриногена, D-димера, ЧДД, ЧСС, уровень артериального давления в группе пациентов легкой и средней степени тяжести были статистически значимо ниже, чем в группе тяжелых пациентов (p &lt; 0,001). Выделено 11 показателей, являющихся предикторами тяжелого течения (уровень периферической кислородной сатурации, количество эритроцитов, уровень гемоглобина, абсолютные значения эозинофилов, лимфоцитов, абсолютное значения нейтрофилов, уровень ЛДГ, ферритина, С-реактивного белка, D-димера) и их пороговые значения. Разработанная с использованием методов искусственного интеллекта прогностическая модель с высокой чувствительностью и специфичностью способна предсказать развитие тяжелого течения SARS-CoV-2-инфекции у пациентов молодого возраста.   Заключение. Значения лабораторных и инструментальных показателей, полученных у пациентов с SARS-CoV-2-инфекцией различной степени тяжести при поступлении на стационарное лечение, статистически значимо отличаются. Среди них выделены 11 показателей, которые достоверно связаны с развитием тяжелого течения. На основе методов искусственного интеллекта построена прогностическая модель глубокого обучения, которая с высокой точностью предсказывает развитие тяжелого течения SARS-CoV-2-инфекции у лиц молодого возраста на этапе госпитализации.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>   Aim: to build a predictive model for severe COVID-19 prediction in young adults using deep learning methods.   Materials and methods: data from 906 medical records of patients aged 18 to 44 years with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during 2020–2021 period was analyzed. Evaluation of laboratory and instrumental data was carried out using the Mann-Whitney U-test. The level of statistical significance was p≤0,05. The neural network was trained using the Pytorch framework.   Results: in patients with mild to moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection, peripheral oxygen saturation, erythrocytes, hemoglobin, total protein, albumin, hematocrit, serum iron, transferrin, and absolute peripheral blood eosinophil and lymphocyte counts were significantly higher than in patients with severe СOVID-19 (p&lt; 0,001). The values of the absolute number of neutrophils, ESR, glucose, ALT, AST, CPK, urea, LDH, ferritin, CRP, fibrinogen, D-dimer, respiration rate, heart rate, blood pressure in the group of patients with mild and moderate severity were statistically significantly lower than in the group of severe patients (p &lt; 0.001). Eleven indicators were identified as predictors of severe COVID-19 (peripheral oxygen level, peripheral blood erythrocyte count, hemoglobin level, absolute eosinophil count, absolute lymphocyte count, absolute neutrophil count, LDH, ferritin, C-reactive protein, D-dimer levels) and their threshold values. A model intended to predict COVID-19 severity in young adults was built.   Conclusion. The values of laboratory and instrumental indicators obtained in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection upon admission significantly differ. Among them eleven indicators were significantly associated with the development of a severe COVID-19. A predictive model based on artificial intelligence method with high accuracy predicts the likelihood of severe SARS-CoV-2 course development in young adults.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>COVID-19</kwd><kwd>SARS-CoV-2</kwd><kwd>новая коронавирусная инфекция</kwd><kwd>искусственный интеллект</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>COVID-19</kwd><kwd>SARS-CoV-2</kwd><kwd>novel coronavirus disease</kwd><kwd>artificial intelligence</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Crevier, D. A. I: the tumultuous history of the search for artificial intelligence / D. 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